Election of 2004

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Abbreviations Definitions Sources

BASICS

Category Result
Incumbent George W. Bush (R)
Prior streak R (1)
Prior five elections R (3), D (2)
Population 292,805,298
States 51
Electoral votes 538
Popular votes 122,295,345
Voter turnout 55.7%

FIELD OF QUALIFIED CANDIDATES

Candidate Party PI Age State Position Nom Win CS ROP
George W. Bush R 9.3 58.32 Texas President X X 78.71 85
John Kerry D 6.6 60.89 Massachusetts Senator X 73.65 112
John Edwards D 7.8 51.39 North Carolina Senator 22.22 28
Howard Dean D 6.0 55.96 Vermont Former governor 13.32 22
Wesley Clark D 4.2 59.86 Arkansas Former general 12.00 29
Joseph Lieberman D 7.2 62.69 Connecticut Senator 11.04 15
Richard Gephardt D 3.9 63.75 Missouri Representative 10.23 26

GENERAL ELECTION

Candidate Party SC PV PV% EV EV% PV*EQ EV*EQ
George W. Bush R 31 62,040,610 50.73% 286 53.16% 50,730,148 286
John Kerry D 20 59,028,439 48.27% 251 46.65% 48,267,118 251
John Edwards D 0 0 0.00% 1 0.19% 0 1

REGIONAL SPLITS

Candidate Party PV% East South Midwest West EV East South Midwest West
George W. Bush R 50.73% 43.36% 57.26% 50.78% 48.72% 286 5 168 66 47
John Kerry D 48.27% 55.45% 42.01% 48.37% 49.87% 251 117 0 57 77
John Edwards D 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1 0 0 1 0

PV BY STATES

State Total PV Bush Kerry Other
Alabama 1,883,449 1,176,394 693,933 13,122
Alaska 312,598 190,889 111,025 10,684
Arizona 2,012,585 1,104,294 893,524 14,767
Arkansas 1,054,945 572,898 469,953 12,094
California 12,421,852 5,509,826 6,745,485 166,541
Colorado 2,130,330 1,101,255 1,001,732 27,343
Connecticut 1,578,769 693,826 857,488 27,455
Delaware 375,190 171,660 200,152 3,378
District of Columbia 227,586 21,256 202,970 3,360
Florida 7,609,810 3,964,522 3,583,544 61,744
Georgia 3,301,875 1,914,254 1,366,149 21,472
Hawaii 429,013 194,191 231,708 3,114
Idaho 598,447 409,235 181,098 8,114
Illinois 5,274,322 2,345,946 2,891,550 36,826
Indiana 2,468,002 1,479,438 969,011 19,553
Iowa 1,506,908 751,957 741,898 13,053
Kansas 1,187,756 736,456 434,993 16,307
Kentucky 1,795,882 1,069,439 712,733 13,710
Louisiana 1,943,106 1,102,169 820,299 20,638
Maine 740,752 330,201 396,842 13,709
Maryland 2,386,678 1,024,703 1,334,493 27,482
Massachusetts 2,912,388 1,071,109 1,803,800 37,479
Michigan 4,839,252 2,313,746 2,479,183 46,323
Minnesota 2,828,387 1,346,695 1,445,014 36,678
Mississippi 1,152,145 684,981 458,094 9,070
Missouri 2,731,364 1,455,713 1,259,171 16,480
Montana 450,445 266,063 173,710 10,672
Nebraska 778,186 512,814 254,328 11,044
Nevada 829,587 418,690 397,190 13,707
New Hampshire 677,738 331,237 340,511 5,990
New Jersey 3,611,691 1,670,003 1,911,430 30,258
New Mexico 756,304 376,930 370,942 8,432
New York 7,391,036 2,962,567 4,314,280 114,189
North Carolina 3,501,007 1,961,166 1,525,849 13,992
North Dakota 312,833 196,651 111,052 5,130
Ohio 5,627,908 2,859,768 2,741,167 26,973
Oklahoma 1,463,758 959,792 503,966
Oregon 1,836,782 866,831 943,163 26,788
Pennsylvania 5,769,590 2,793,847 2,938,095 37,648
Rhode Island 437,134 169,046 259,760 8,328
South Carolina 1,617,730 937,974 661,699 18,057
South Dakota 388,215 232,584 149,244 6,387
Tennessee 2,437,319 1,384,375 1,036,477 16,467
Texas 7,410,765 4,526,917 2,832,704 51,144
Utah 927,844 663,742 241,199 22,903
Vermont 312,309 121,180 184,067 7,062
Virginia 3,198,367 1,716,959 1,454,742 26,666
Washington 2,859,084 1,304,894 1,510,201 43,989
West Virginia 755,887 423,778 326,541 5,568
Wisconsin 2,997,007 1,478,120 1,489,504 29,383
Wyoming 243,428 167,629 70,776 5,023
Total 122,295,345 62,040,610 59,028,439 1,226,296

PV% BY STATES

State PV winner Bush Kerry Other
Alabama Bush 62.46% 36.84% 0.70%
Alaska Bush 61.07% 35.52% 3.42%
Arizona Bush 54.87% 44.40% 0.73%
Arkansas Bush 54.31% 44.55% 1.15%
California Kerry 44.36% 54.30% 1.34%
Colorado Bush 51.69% 47.02% 1.28%
Connecticut Kerry 43.95% 54.31% 1.74%
Delaware Kerry 45.75% 53.35% 0.90%
District of Columbia Kerry 9.34% 89.18% 1.48%
Florida Bush 52.10% 47.09% 0.81%
Georgia Bush 57.98% 41.38% 0.65%
Hawaii Kerry 45.27% 54.01% 0.73%
Idaho Bush 68.38% 30.26% 1.36%
Illinois Kerry 44.48% 54.82% 0.70%
Indiana Bush 59.95% 39.26% 0.79%
Iowa Bush 49.90% 49.23% 0.87%
Kansas Bush 62.00% 36.62% 1.37%
Kentucky Bush 59.55% 39.69% 0.76%
Louisiana Bush 56.72% 42.22% 1.06%
Maine Kerry 44.58% 53.57% 1.85%
Maryland Kerry 42.93% 55.91% 1.15%
Massachusetts Kerry 36.78% 61.94% 1.29%
Michigan Kerry 47.81% 51.23% 0.96%
Minnesota Kerry 47.61% 51.09% 1.30%
Mississippi Bush 59.45% 39.76% 0.79%
Missouri Bush 53.30% 46.10% 0.60%
Montana Bush 59.07% 38.56% 2.37%
Nebraska Bush 65.90% 32.68% 1.42%
Nevada Bush 50.47% 47.88% 1.65%
New Hampshire Kerry 48.87% 50.24% 0.88%
New Jersey Kerry 46.24% 52.92% 0.84%
New Mexico Bush 49.84% 49.05% 1.12%
New York Kerry 40.08% 58.37% 1.55%
North Carolina Bush 56.02% 43.58% 0.40%
North Dakota Bush 62.86% 35.50% 1.64%
Ohio Bush 50.81% 48.71% 0.48%
Oklahoma Bush 65.57% 34.43%
Oregon Kerry 47.19% 51.35% 1.46%
Pennsylvania Kerry 48.42% 50.92% 0.65%
Rhode Island Kerry 38.67% 59.42% 1.91%
South Carolina Bush 57.98% 40.90% 1.12%
South Dakota Bush 59.91% 38.44% 1.65%
Tennessee Bush 56.80% 42.53% 0.68%
Texas Bush 61.09% 38.22% 0.69%
Utah Bush 71.54% 26.00% 2.47%
Vermont Kerry 38.80% 58.94% 2.26%
Virginia Bush 53.68% 45.48% 0.83%
Washington Kerry 45.64% 52.82% 1.54%
West Virginia Bush 56.06% 43.20% 0.74%
Wisconsin Kerry 49.32% 49.70% 0.98%
Wyoming Bush 68.86% 29.08% 2.06%
Total Bush 50.73% 48.27% 1.00%

EV BY STATES

State Total EV Bush Kerry Edwards
Alabama 9 9 0 0
Alaska 3 3 0 0
Arizona 10 10 0 0
Arkansas 6 6 0 0
California 55 0 55 0
Colorado 9 9 0 0
Connecticut 7 0 7 0
Delaware 3 0 3 0
District of Columbia 3 0 3 0
Florida 27 27 0 0
Georgia 15 15 0 0
Hawaii 4 0 4 0
Idaho 4 4 0 0
Illinois 21 0 21 0
Indiana 11 11 0 0
Iowa 7 7 0 0
Kansas 6 6 0 0
Kentucky 8 8 0 0
Louisiana 9 9 0 0
Maine 4 0 4 0
Maryland 10 0 10 0
Massachusetts 12 0 12 0
Michigan 17 0 17 0
Minnesota 10 0 9 1
Mississippi 6 6 0 0
Missouri 11 11 0 0
Montana 3 3 0 0
Nebraska 5 5 0 0
Nevada 5 5 0 0
New Hampshire 4 0 4 0
New Jersey 15 0 15 0
New Mexico 5 5 0 0
New York 31 0 31 0
North Carolina 15 15 0 0
North Dakota 3 3 0 0
Ohio 20 20 0 0
Oklahoma 7 7 0 0
Oregon 7 0 7 0
Pennsylvania 21 0 21 0
Rhode Island 4 0 4 0
South Carolina 8 8 0 0
South Dakota 3 3 0 0
Tennessee 11 11 0 0
Texas 34 34 0 0
Utah 5 5 0 0
Vermont 3 0 3 0
Virginia 13 13 0 0
Washington 11 0 11 0
West Virginia 5 5 0 0
Wisconsin 10 0 10 0
Wyoming 3 3 0 0
Total 538 286 251 1

MARGINS AND FLIPS

State PV winner Runnerup Gap (votes) Gap (points) Flip
Alabama Bush Kerry 482,461 25.62 241,231
Alaska Bush Kerry 79,864 25.55 39,933
Arizona Bush Kerry 210,770 10.47 105,386
Arkansas Bush Kerry 102,945 9.76 51,473
California Kerry Bush 1,235,659 9.95 617,830
Colorado Bush Kerry 99,523 4.67 49,762
Connecticut Kerry Bush 163,662 10.37 81,832
Delaware Kerry Bush 28,492 7.59 14,247
District of Columbia Kerry Bush 181,714 79.84 90,858
Florida Bush Kerry 380,978 5.01 190,490
Georgia Bush Kerry 548,105 16.60 274,053
Hawaii Kerry Bush 37,517 8.75 18,759
Idaho Bush Kerry 228,137 38.12 114,069
Illinois Kerry Bush 545,604 10.34 272,803
Indiana Bush Kerry 510,427 20.68 255,214
Iowa Bush Kerry 10,059 0.67 5,030
Kansas Bush Kerry 301,463 25.38 150,732
Kentucky Bush Kerry 356,706 19.86 178,354
Louisiana Bush Kerry 281,870 14.51 140,936
Maine Kerry Bush 66,641 9.00 33,321
Maryland Kerry Bush 309,790 12.98 154,896
Massachusetts Kerry Bush 732,691 25.16 366,346
Michigan Kerry Bush 165,437 3.42 82,719
Minnesota Kerry Bush 98,319 3.48 49,160
Mississippi Bush Kerry 226,887 19.69 113,444
Missouri Bush Kerry 196,542 7.20 98,272
Montana Bush Kerry 92,353 20.50 46,177
Nebraska Bush Kerry 258,486 33.22 129,244
Nevada Bush Kerry 21,500 2.59 10,751
New Hampshire Kerry Bush 9,274 1.37 4,638
New Jersey Kerry Bush 241,427 6.68 120,714
New Mexico Bush Kerry 5,988 0.79 2,995
New York Kerry Bush 1,351,713 18.29 675,857
North Carolina Bush Kerry 435,317 12.43 217,659
North Dakota Bush Kerry 85,599 27.36 42,800
Ohio Bush Kerry 118,601 2.11 59,301
Oklahoma Bush Kerry 455,826 31.14 227,914
Oregon Kerry Bush 76,332 4.16 38,167
Pennsylvania Kerry Bush 144,248 2.50 72,125
Rhode Island Kerry Bush 90,714 20.75 45,358
South Carolina Bush Kerry 276,275 17.08 138,138
South Dakota Bush Kerry 83,340 21.47 41,671
Tennessee Bush Kerry 347,898 14.27 173,950
Texas Bush Kerry 1,694,213 22.86 847,107
Utah Bush Kerry 422,543 45.54 211,272
Vermont Kerry Bush 62,887 20.14 31,444
Virginia Bush Kerry 262,217 8.20 131,109
Washington Kerry Bush 205,307 7.18 102,654
West Virginia Bush Kerry 97,237 12.86 48,619
Wisconsin Kerry Bush 11,384 0.38 5,693
Wyoming Bush Kerry 96,853 39.79 48,427
Total Bush Kerry 3,012,171 2.46 1,506,086
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